Pending Home Sales Climb in April to Highest Level since May 2006
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 3.4 percent to 112.4 in April from a slight
upward revision of 108.7 in March and is now 14.0 percent above April 2014 (98.6) — the largest annual increase since September 2012
(15.1 percent). The index has now increased year-over-year for eight consecutive months and is at its highest level since May 2006 (112.5).
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the steady gains in contract activity each month this year highlight the fact that buyer demand
is strong. “Realtors® are saying foot traffic1 remains elevated this spring despite limited — and in some cases severe — inventory shortages
in many metro areas,” he said. “Homeowners looking to sell this spring appear to be in the driver’s seat, as there are more buyers competing
for a limited number of homes available for sale.”
Adds Yun, “As a result, home prices are up and accelerating in many markets.”
Following April’s decline in existing-home sales, Yun expects a rebound heading into the summer, but the likelihood of meaningful gains will
depend on a much-needed boost in inventory and evidence of moderating price growth now that interest rates have started to rise.
“The housing market can handle interest rates well above 4 percent as long as inventory improves to slow price growth and underwriting
standards ease to normal levels so that qualified buyers — especially first-time buyers — are able to obtain a mortgage.”
After falling four straight months, the PHSI in the Northeast bounced back solidly (10.1 percent) to 88.3 in April, and is now 9.4 percent
above a year ago. In the Midwest the index increased 5.0 percent to 113.0 in April, and is 13.3 percent above April 2014.
Pending home sales in the South rose 2.3 percent to an index of 129.4 in April and are 14.8 percent above last April. The index
in the West inched 0.1 percent in April to 103.8, and is 16.4 percent above a year ago.
Total existing-home sales in 2015 are forecast to be around 5.24 million, an increase of 6.1 percent from 2014. The national median
existing-home price for all of this year is expected to increase around 6.7 percent. In 2014, existing-home sales declined 2.9 percetn
and prices rose 5.7 percent.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1 million members
involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
An index greater than 50 indicates that more respondents viewed traffic as “strong” than those who viewed traffic as “weak.”
*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale
is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within
one or two months of signing.
The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales.
In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of
closed existing-home sales in the following two months.
An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined. By coincidence,
the volume of existing-home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population.